Phoenix real estate, measured in things you can check.

What I make of it

Prices are down and nobody is pretending otherwise: the median asking price in the metro was $475K in August, 4.8% lower than a year ago, and more than a quarter of listings had already been cut before a single buyer walked through the door. Inventory is up 5.2% year over year, but not because sellers got confident — most of those extra listings are homes that simply didn't sell. The real ceiling here is the cost of money. The 30-year is back above 7% after the Fed raised rates in September, so the monthly payment, not the number on the sign, is what kills most deals in this Valley. What I'm watching this fall is whether sellers keep cutting price or quietly pull their homes off the market when the math stops working.

This page is the one I'd want if I were moving to the Valley and didn't trust anyone yet. It isn't a forecast and it isn't a sales pitch — it's the numbers, and my honest read on them.

Where these numbers come from

Asking price, inventory and days on market are from Realtor.com's August 2026 Monthly Housing Trends Report, published 5 September 2026; the listing count is also republished by FRED. The mortgage rate is from Freddie Mac's weekly survey. City-level detail comes from ARMLS data, the same numbers behind the Cromford Report.

I refresh this on the first week of every month. If a figure looks wrong or stale, say so and I'll fix it that day.